As I put it recently, the big message of Obama's two months (and counting) of dithering on Afghanistan is that the office of commander-in-chief is empty. So is the position of "leader of the free world," the unofficial but indispensable role served by American presidents since 1948.
Instead, Barack Obama is turning out to be the follower of the free world. He has delayed so long in making a decision on whether to send more troops to Afghanistan that our European allies are trying to push him into it. European defense ministers just held a meeting to hear from General McChrystal, to endorse his plan for Afghanistan—and to convey that endorsement to our Secretary of Defense.
Heck, even the main Afghan opposition candidate, Abdullah Abdullah, has endorsed the Afghan "surge." Abdullah will be Hamid Karzai's opponent in a run-off election, and he looks to be a very acceptable alternative—a preferable one, actually, from the standpoint of counterinsurgency, since he has greater legitimacy than Karzai, who has come to be associated with official corruption and election fraud.
What Obama is ensuring is that, even if he ends up making the right decision on Afghanistan and committing the forces we need, he will get no credit for it. He will look like he was forced into it by political opponents and by our allies. The decision—which will be Obama's only good decision so far, if he makes it—will look like what it is: the second-handed reaction of an empty suit.
"NATO Ministers Endorse Wider Afghan Effort," Thom Shanker and Mark Landler, New York Times, October 23
Defense ministers from NATO on Friday endorsed the ambitious counterinsurgency strategy for Afghanistan proposed by Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, giving new impetus to his recommendation to pour more troops into the eight-year-old war.
General McChrystal, the senior American and allied commander in Afghanistan, made an unannounced appearance here on Friday to brief the defense ministers on his strategic review of a war in which the American-led campaign has lost momentum to a tenacious Taliban insurgency….
The acceptance by NATO defense ministers of General McChrystal's approach did not include a decision on new troops, and it was not clear that their judgment would translate into increased willingness by their governments, many of which have been seeking to reduce their military presence in Afghanistan, to contribute further forces to the war.
But it was another in a series of judgments that success there could not be achieved by a narrower effort that did not increase troop levels in Afghanistan substantially and focused more on capturing and killing terrorists linked to Al Qaeda—a counterterrorism strategy identified with Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr....
NATO's support got no official reaction from the White House. But an administration official noted that an endorsement by defense ministers was not the same as an endorsement by the alliance's political leadership. Other officials were emphatic that Mr. Obama would not be stampeded in his deliberations and suggested that the NATO statement should not be taken as evidence that the White House had made a decision about how to proceed….
NATO officials assessing the potential for allied troop contributions said that delicate negotiations were under way, and that NATO capitals were watching the Obama administration for signals even while they sent signals of their own.
2. "Crimes That Would Make the Shah Look Good"
Jack Wakeland just sent me a collection of links to articles like this one (on an American military official's statement that the US would join an Israeli air assault on Iran's nuclear program), which he describes as "more useless—but amusing—speculation about an air campaign against Iran that Obama won't ever approve."
Jack and I used to take this kind of report seriously, before President Bush blinked on Iran in the summer of 2006. Then we took them semi-seriously—until President Obama took office. But it is now clear what is actually happening with all of these rumors and speculations. Jack describes it well:
What is actually going on here is a dance—a confused and uncoordinated pose-off—in which Israel and the West are attempting to establish nuclear deterrence against Iran, and Iran is attempting to establish as much power and standing as it can from its impending nuclear threats.
The US is technologically and politically limiting Israel's capacity to act against Iran independently so as to maintain control over the West's half of the situation, but it is doing so in a totally uncoordinated fashion that undermines the West's deterrent posture every two months, requiring that posture to be bucked up by radical statements from the White House, Foggy Bottom, and the Pentagon, as well as from Tel Aviv—statements that then have to be partially withdrawn and corrected so that Iran doesn't think an attack is already underway.
A new Cold War, complete with a nuclear standoff, is already well underway. This Cold War dance of threats and counter-threats started in earnest back in the spring of 2006.
But the overall picture, as Jack has argued recently, is that the Obama administration is actively abetting Iran's nuclear program by endorsing a Russian offer that would help Iran overcome a technical hurdle by removing contaminants from their low-enriched uranium. Here is how he put it last week:
In my October 15 column for TIA Daily, I noted that the Russians would return the highly enriched fuel back to Iran in the form of uranium oxide. It turns out the Russian-purified and Russian-enriched fuel is metallic fuel for Iran's little medical isotope reactor.
So not only will the 19.75% enriched uranium get Iran past a chemical stumbling block they haven't been able to resolve in their uranium bomb program; it will get them metallic fuel that can be converted back to highly purified uranium hexafluoride gas very, very easily.
I was happy to see this passage from TIA Daily picked up by Caroline Glick in the Jerusalem Post (thanks to TIA Daily reader James Grabowsky for catching this), and also to see that the same point has been figured out elsewhere. The Wall Street Journal notes:
"With 19.75 enriched feed"—as opposed to the 3.5% that Iran now manages—"the level of effort or time Iran would need to make weapons grade uranium would drop very significantly," from roughly five months today "down to something slightly less than four weeks," says Henry Sokolski of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center.
Iran may also welcome the Russian-enriched uranium because its own technology is less advanced. The October 8 edition of the trade journal Nucleonics Week reports that Iran's low-enriched uranium appears to have "impurities" that "could cause centrifuges to fail" if Iran itself tried to enrich uranium to weapons-grade—which would mean above 20% and ideally up to 90%. In this scenario, the West would be decontaminating the uranium for Iran.
So that means our only hope for stopping Iran is that the regime will collapse from within. And there the news has not been good. The regime seems to have been able, so far, to suppress the opposition—though at the cost of putting itself in a state of permanent warfare against its own population. This temporary victory has been achieved by brutality—most recently the death sentences handed down against dissidents.
But the opposition has not disappeared, and since this is a new Cold War, there will be new dissidents—people so convinced of the evil of the regime they are facing that they will speak out against it whatever the personal cost. The New York Times article below profiles one such person, Mehdi Karroubi, who seems to have taken over from Mir Hossein Moussavi as the leading voice of the Iranian opposition.
"A Lone Cleric Is Loudly Defying Iran's Leaders," Michael Slackman, New York Times, October 22
Once a second-tier opposition figure operating in the shadow of Mir Hussein Moussavi, his fellow challenger in Iran's discredited presidential election in June, Mr. Karroubi has emerged in recent months as the last and most defiant opponent of the country's leadership….
[F]or all its success at preserving authority, the government has been unable to silence or intimidate Mr. Karroubi, its most tenacious and, in many ways, most problematic critic. While other opposition figures, including Mr. Moussavi and two former presidents, Mohammad Khatami and Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, are seldom heard now, Mr. Karroubi has been unsparing and highly vocal in his criticism of the government, which he feels has lost all legitimacy.
Last week, a special court for the clergy began to consider whether Mr. Karroubi, 72, should face charges.…
"His potential arrest is an acid test of the internal meltdown of the upper echelon of the regime and the final breakdown in its legitimacy facade," said Hamid Dabashi, a professor of Iranian studies at Columbia University. "We had heard that revolutions eat their own children, but his seems to be a case of revolutionary parricide."…
After the overthrow of the shah, Ayatollah Khomeini put Mr. Karroubi in charge of the Imam Khomeini Relief Committee and the Martyrs Foundation, two of the nation's most important and wealthiest institutions. He also served twice as speaker of Parliament, where he earned a reputation as a conciliator; served on the powerful Expediency Council; and was appointed adviser to the subsequent supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei….
If Mr. Karroubi had restricted his complaints to the vote tally, he might have been ignored. But he has gone far beyond that with his accusations that state security officers raped, sodomized and tortured men and women who were arrested for taking part in the protests. The allegations have unnerved the leadership, threatening its legitimacy and religious standing far more than images of the police beating protesters in the streets.
After the government dismissed those allegations last month, Mr. Karroubi was summoned to appear before a three-judge panel investigating his actions. He welcomed the invitation. "It will be a good opportunity for me to talk again about crimes that would make the shah look good," he said, according to the Green Freedom Wave Web site.
3. State-Owned Media
Barack Obama has no interest in confronting America's enemies abroad—but his administration has declared war against Fox News Channel, with Obama's top aides describing it as "not really a news station" and trying to flatter and cajole other news organization into ignoring stories that originate with Fox.
Why? Because Fox has gotten the scoop on all of the scandals involving Communists and other unsavory types within the administration, as well as the criminal activities of ACORN, Barack Obama's old "community organizer" racket.
Charles Krauthammer describes the overall meaning of this despicable, illiberal campaign to destroy the opposition press. But he doesn't name a point made by blogger Donald Sensing: the target of this campaign is not Fox News—it's the entire press corps. In attempting to block out his most effective critic, Obama is sending the message to other news organizations that they had better fall in with the party line and stay "in the tank" for Obama.
So far, fortunately, it's not working. The other big news organizations have apparently figured out what's at stake and have made a notable attempt to resist Obama's blacklisting of Fox News. The administration made its "pay czar" available to the White House press pool—a consortium of the big three broadcast networks and the big two cable news channels, CNN and Fox—but then tried to block Fox's reporter from the interview. The other networks refused, and the White House backed down.
As Jennifer Rubin points out, all of this, combined with further administration whining about how they are just trying to "clean up someone else's mess" and can't be held responsible for anything, makes the administration look small, petty, weak—and scared.
But there is a very serious issue behind all of this. Seth Lipsky, publisher of the late and very much lamented New York Sun, warns about a campaign to provide government subsidies for failing newspapers. President Obama is already trying to treat a free and independent press as if it were the state-owned media of a banana republic. It will get even worse if that media actually does become state-subsidized.
"Fox Wars," Charles Krauthammer, Washington Post, October 23
The White House has declared war on Fox News. White House communications director Anita Dunn said that Fox is "opinion journalism masquerading as news." Patting rival networks on the head for their authenticity (read: docility), senior adviser David Axelrod declared Fox "not really a news station." And Chief of Staff Emanuel told (warned?) the other networks not to "be led [by] and following Fox."
Meaning? If Fox runs a story critical of the administration—from exposing "green jobs" czar Van Jones as a loony 9/11 "truther" to exhaustively examining the mathematical chicanery and hidden loopholes in proposed health-care legislation—the other news organizations should think twice before following the lead….
At first, there was little reaction from other media. Then on Thursday, the administration tried to make them complicit in an actual boycott of Fox. The Treasury Department made available Ken Feinberg, the executive pay czar, for interviews with the White House "pool" news organizations—except Fox. The other networks admirably refused, saying they would not interview Feinberg unless Fox was permitted to as well. The administration backed down.
This was an important defeat because there's a principle at stake here. While government can and should debate and criticize opposition voices, the current White House goes beyond that. It wants to delegitimize any significant dissent. The objective is no secret. White House aides openly told Politico that they're engaged in a deliberate campaign to marginalize and ostracize recalcitrants, from Fox to health insurers to the US Chamber of Commerce.
4. "The Brains of the Machine"
The administration's attempt to dictate what is and is not a legitimate news organization is just part—the most ominous part—of the overall dictatorial feel of this administration. The other big part is the extent to which this administration is using the bailouts and the stimulus as a tool to reach into private businesses and control every little detail of their management.
The latest example is a decree from the federal "pay czar" dictating the salaries of all the top talent at firms that have received federal bailout funds—coordinated with an announcement by the Federal Reserve that its regulators will be dictating executive compensation at all financial institutions, even if they didn't take government money.
An article in the Wall Street Journal notes that previous government intervention in executive compensation helped create the very problems the new regulations are supposed to solve, while the article below describes the predictable consequence of arbitrary limits on executive pay: a "brain drain" from the financial industry as top talent goes where it will be rewarded.
But note the scariest sentence in the report below: "Feinberg did say exceptions were made 'where necessary to retain talent and protect taxpayer interests.'" So there will be strict limits on corporate pay—except for those the "pay czar" considers to be special exceptions. The new Fed regulations are similarly arbitrary.
Consider the potential for political manipulation: if you take orders from the White House and go along with its agenda—backing Obama's health-care bill, for example, or withdrawing from the Chamber of Commerce when it opposes cap-and-trade—then maybe you will be considered an exception, and it will be in the "public interest" to pay you a higher salary. Do something the administration doesn't like—say, advertising on Fox News Channel—and you can guarantee that the rules will be applied against you in their most draconian form.
This is what economic dictatorship on the fascist model—businesses are nominally private but are actually controlled by the state—looks like.
"Limits on Exec Pay Cause Worries of Brain Drain," Rachel Beck, AP via MSNBC, October 22
The Obama administration's decision to cut the pay of top executives at companies on taxpayer life support will help quiet the popular outrage over excessive compensation. But it introduces a new concern: brain drain.
The 175 executives targeted by "pay czar" Kenneth Feinberg are not only the highest-paid but also considered among the most talented and productive. And competitors outside the restrictions are likely to woo them, recruiters and compensation expects say.
Losses like that could be devastating to the very companies the government spent so much money to save.
"These people are considered the brains of the machine. They are who can pull you through the tough times," said Steven Hall, who runs an executive compensation firm that bears his name. "This will give them reason to leave."
Feinberg announced Thursday that he has ordered seven companies that have received billions of dollars in taxpayer money to slash the base salaries of their top executives by an average of 90 percent and cut total compensation—cash, stock and perks—in half.
That applies to the five top executives and the next 20 highest-paid employees at Bank of America Corp., American International Group Inc., Citigroup Inc., General Motors, GMAC, Chrysler and Chrysler Financial….
Those facing pay restrictions outside the executive suite hold leadership positions in areas like finance and investment banking at the banks, and in manufacturing, brand management and design at the auto companies….
Feinberg will limit cash salaries to $500,000. Executives who had been guaranteed certain compensation will have those payments made in company stock to be held over the long term….
Feinberg did say exceptions were made "where necessary to retain talent and protect taxpayer interests."
5. The Health-Care Horse Race
We're in an odd gray zone right now in the struggle over Obama's health-care bill. The public clearly opposes the bill—yet it is still making its way, inch by inch, through Congress. Why?
The tea party protests and town hall uprisings of the summer have subsided, not because they were ineffectual, but because they have already had their main impact. They galvanized opposition on the pro-free-market, "small government" right and among persuadable independents, which is what flipped the poll numbers against ObamaCare.
But that won't move many Democrats in Congress, who come from left-leaning districts or who were elected through the grass-roots effort of leftist activists. These members of Congress are just as afraid that their leftist backers will turn against them, costing them the support of their "base." So they are actually mounting an effort to push the bill further to the left, resurrecting the "public option" of government-run health insurance.
Nancy Pelosi has already tried to get the votes for this option in the House and failed—but rather than giving up, she is now trying harder, and Majority Leader Harry Reid is also pushing for the "public option" in the Senate.
I tend to agree with the article below, however, that this resurrection of the public option indicates desperation rather than some kind of unstoppable momentum. The article below does a good job of showing the inescapable, relentless mathematics that could kill any version of ObamaCare. Congress doesn't have the guts to imposes the taxes (directly or indirectly) to pay for a government takeover of health care—but they can't hide the costs, either.
What will break the current pattern? I agree with Dick Morris's analysis: the public currently opposes ObamaCare, but not by a big enough margin to stop it cold in Congress. If public support drops by another 5 to 10 percentage points, the bill will die. And Morris identifies the most likely target audience to achieve that goal: uninformed young people who will bear the fines and taxes to pay for ObamaCare—that is, the victims of the bill's ruthless mathematics.
"Public Option Revival Not a Sign of Strength," Chris Stirewalt, Washington Examiner, October 26
[W]hile it may be cause to raise a glass of carbon-neutral pinot noir in Berkeley and on the Upper West Side, the renewed talk of a government-run insurance program is a sign of weakness, not strength, for President Obama's health plan.
The president and his team have put the insurance industry at the top of their ever-lengthening list of enemies and are now threatening to cut them out of the great health care takeover.
But the plan until recently was to turn the health insurance industry into a public utility: Americans would have no choice but to buy their products, but the feds would set rates and coverage rules….
As the legislation was being brewed up, though, lawmakers flinched at imposing coercive fines for failing to buy insurance.
Trouble is, as long as it's substantially cheaper to pay the fine than buy insurance, millions will still choose to roll the dice on their good health. Plus, if insurance companies will be forced to accept people with pre-existing conditions, why not wait until you get sick to start paying?
A weak mandate means higher premiums for responsible customers and takes coverage out of reach of millions more middle-class families.
One way around the problems caused by low fines is to put additional billions into subsidies. Rather than offering free coverage for a family of three that earns $40,000 a year, make the threshold $60,000.
It's just that doing so would drive costs into the stratosphere….
As they run out of options, the president and majority leader are trying old ingredients in different proportions.
But the votes are not there in the Senate, and maybe not even the House, for a public option strong enough to really stick it to the insurance industry.
6. Intellectual Climate Change
A much as I am outraged by this administration's attempts to "control" news reporting and the public debate, I also think Obama's people are deluding themselves if they believe they actually have the power to do it.
The health-care debate was a good example. Over the summer, the more the president talked about his health-care bill, the more people hated it—despite the efforts of the lapdog media, including an ABC News propaganda special broadcast from within the White House.
And there has been no cultural propaganda campaign more uniform and far-reaching than the global-warming campaign—yet the latest polls, reported below, show a drop in the public's acceptance of global warming claims.
Note specifically that the number of people who believe global warming is caused by human activity has fallen to 35%. And while it may seem odd that support for "cap-and-trade" energy rationing is still above 50%, note that this high approval is among people who largely say that they know nothing about the legislation. Those who describe themselves as knowing "a lot" about cap-and-trade oppose it by a two-to-one margin.
This is the power of a free society in which the truth can still get a hearing, no matter how much would-be tyrants want to declare that the debate is over.
" Fewer Americans See Solid Evidence of Global Warming," The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, October 22
There has been a sharp decline over the past year in the percentage of Americans who say there is solid evidence that global temperatures are rising. And fewer also see global warming as a very serious problem–35% say that today, down from 44% in April 2008.
The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 4 among 1,500 adults reached on cell phones and landlines, finds that 57% think there is solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been getting warmer over the past few decades. In April 2008, 71% said there was solid evidence of rising global temperatures.
Over the same period, there has been a comparable decline in the proportion of Americans who say global temperatures are rising as a result of human activity, such as burning fossil fuels. Just 36% say that currently, down from 47% last year.
The decline in the belief in solid evidence of global warming has come across the political spectrum, but has been particularly pronounced among independents. Just 53% of independents now see solid evidence of global warming, compared with 75% who did so in April 2008. Republicans, who already were highly skeptical of the evidence of global warming, have become even more so: just 35% of Republicans now see solid evidence of rising global temperatures, down from 49% in 2008 and 62% in 2007. Fewer Democrats also express this view–75% today compared with 83% last year.
Despite the growing public skepticism about global warming, the survey finds more support than opposition for a policy to set limits on carbon emissions…. Just 14% say they have heard a lot about the so-called "cap and trade" policy that would set carbon dioxide emissions limits; another 30% say they have heard a little about the policy, while a majority (55%) has heard nothing at all.
The small minority that has heard a lot about the issue opposes carbon emissions limits by two-to-one (64% to 32%).
Robert Tracinski writes daily commentary at TIADaily.com. He is the editor of The Intellectual Activist and contributor to The Freedom Fighters Journal.